UK Diplomats Cautioned Against Military Action to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader
Recently released documents show that the UK's diplomatic corps advised against British military action to overthrow the former Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "serious option".
Government Documents Reveal Considerations on Handling a "Remarkably Robust" Leader
Internal documents from the then Prime Minister's government indicate officials considered options on how best to deal with the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old dictator, who declined to leave office as the country descended into violence and economic chaos.
Following Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.
Isolation Strategy Considered Ineffective
Officials agreed that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and building an international consensus for change was failing, having failed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.
Options outlined in the files were:
- "Seek to remove Mugabe by military means";
- "Implement tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and shuttering the UK embassy; or
- "Re-open dialogue", the option advocated by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.
"Our experience shows from conflicts abroad that altering a government and/or its bad policies is almost impossible from the outside."
The FCO paper dismissed military action as not a "realistic option," and warned that "The only nation for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be prepared to do so".
Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles
It cautioned that military involvement would cause heavy casualties and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.
"Short of a severe human and political catastrophe – resulting in massive violence, significant exodus of refugees, and regional instability – we judge that no nation in Africa would agree to any attempts to remove Mugabe forcibly."
The document adds: "We also believe that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would authorise or participate in military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."
Long-Term Strategy Recommended
Blair's foreign policy adviser, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "will be a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been discounted, "it is likely necessary that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-engage with Mugabe.
Blair appeared to agree, noting: "We must devise a way of revealing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then afterwards, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a clear understanding."
The departing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has said and done".
Robert Mugabe was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, aged 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise Thabo Mbeki into joining a armed alliance to overthrow Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the ex-British leader.
