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Ouch. On one hand, the nation's long-running campaign to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next November.

This won't occur. Rather, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to many people who had hoped hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. It translated to reports in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This contrasted with the communication being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the nations actually turn up for – the talks on how to together address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey clearly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's host had backed the Australian bid.

But, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the oil producers that provided the Turks with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is considered close to the Russian leader. Some countries feared a conference obstructed from the top if his administration managed the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often unsettling to watch, but multilateral action has demonstrably had an impact in the fight against climate change. This joint approach is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see the minister as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. Although certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and achieve an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unanswered questions. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement looking like the best chance possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.