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Two days remaining.

The English side's opening match in Australia begins on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|