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Initially, Donald Trump gave the impression to adopt a firm approach regarding Ukraine. Following issuing statements of "severe ramifications" in August should Russia's president persisted obstructing ceasefire negotiations, Trump finally imposed substantial restrictions on the Russian biggest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move substantially impacted Putin's capacity to finance his war effort in the region.

However, via his recently unveiled comprehensive peace initiative for the conflict, which was drafted by American and Russian officials without Ukrainian or EU participation, the former president has apparently gone back to his pro-Putin position.

Favoring Aggression

This proposal would essentially favor Putin for occupying a sovereign nation while leaving the country's democracy in jeopardy. Although strong declarations that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be affirmed", much of the initiative actually weaken that same independence. What represents a Kremlin dream would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his corporate background, Trump continues to consider the war as a mere territorial dispute, as if ceding Russia a section of Ukraine's land will satisfy the leader. Yet, Russia's military campaign is not simply about dominating a destroyed swath of economically weakened area in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about the nation's political system – and Putin's clear goal to eliminate it so it ceases to functions as an enticing standard for the Russian citizens of the accountable government that Putin's growing dictatorship withholds them.

Border Surrenders

Although freezing in status the presently separated regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the plan would require the nation to give up all of Donetsk region. In addition to favoring the Russian Federation with territory that its military have been failed to seize in more than a decade of warfare, this surrender would leave Ukraine's defenses dangerously undermined.

The area is the site of the nation's well-known "fortress belt", the entrenched protective structures that represent a essential impediment to invading forces. Trump would have the Ukrainian military surrender these positions, providing Putin a unobstructed way to the capital if he subsequently choose to restart the conflict.

Armed Forces Limitations

Then, in a action that would enable renewed conflict more feasible for the Russian military, Trump would require Ukraine to diminish the numbers of its military from their current approximately 800,000 personnel to a limit of 600,000. Importantly, Trump's plan places no equivalent constraints on the invading army.

Apparently as a gesture to Putin's campaign to portray the nation's legitimate government as radicals, the proposal states: "All Nazi ideology and practices must be rejected and prohibited." Apparently to underscore this aspect, it demands that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in three months" of a truce. Meanwhile, Trump sets no requirement that the Russian leader risk his dictatorship by allowing elections in his own country.

Protection Commitments

Admittedly, the proposal makes Russia promise not to "attack neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in law its stance of non-violence towards Europe and Ukraine". But given that Putin has violated similar accords in the previous instances – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government committed to honor the nation's sovereignty in exchange for surrendering its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia committed to a halt in fighting and a handback of seized areas in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – why should the international community have confidence in Russia now?

That is why Ukraine has been so adamant on international defense commitments. Although the plan promises a "strong coordinated military response" in case the Russian Federation restart its military campaign, and includes that "The nation will receive strong defense commitments", the details vary from fuzzy to concerning. The proposal would not just deny Ukraine Nato membership but also prohibit alliance nations from stationing military personnel on Ukraine's soil, thereby preventing the peacekeeping contingent, likely led by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to stop Putin from rebuilding his reduced forces, restocking, and reinvading.

International Reaction

Another supplementary accord apparently would grant the nation with a similar to NATO security guarantee, in which any later "serious, deliberate, and continuous military assault" by Russia on the country "would be considered as an attack jeopardizing the tranquility of the allied countries." This implies a defense action. However in contrast to a capable Ukrainian military – the nation's best defense against additional invasion – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would hinge on the dedication of Nato leaders, like Trump, to act with force to Russia's attacks, an action they have {not