‘A Critical Scenario’: Conflict on Iran Squeezes India's Cooking-Gas Stock.

The shockwaves of a conflict being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now reaching India's kitchens.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran impede energy deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz, supplies of kitchen fuel are shrinking across India, compelling restaurants to cut menus, shorten hours and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing lines outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian urban and rural areas as concerns over fuel supplies grow. Businesses appear the worst hit: the most severe shortage is in commercial eateries.

"The situation is dire. Cooking gas simply isn't available," says a official of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most restaurants run either on industrial fuel canisters or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the scarcities are now being noticed across the country. "A lot of restaurants have closed - some in Delhi, many in the southern states. People are turning to coal and wood and induction stoves to keep their operations going."

Localized Effects

In a western metro, local news say up to a 20% of hospitality businesses are already completely or partially closed as cylinder availability dry up. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some eateries say their fuel reserves have dwindled with scarce alternatives. "We can only make coffee and nothing else - it is truly dismal. Operations will be impacted," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

Restaurant managers are seeking alternatives. "Menus are being curtailed, some are skipping midday meals and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are fluctuating as supplies ebb and flow. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers note a increase in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are selling out quickly.

Authority's View

Yet, the government maintains there is no shortage.

India has more than 300 million home fuel subscribers and officials say stocks are being reallocated to households as tensions from the war in the Gulf ripple through energy markets.

Approximately 60% of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about the vast majority of those consignments pass through the critical waterway, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now significantly disrupted by the hostilities.

The oil ministry says that it ordered refineries to increase LPG output for home needs, lifting domestic production by about 25%. Commercial stock is being reserved for vital industries such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"Some panic booking and stockpiling has been triggered by false reports. The normal delivery cycle for domestic LPG remains about two-and-a-half days," says a senior official.

Widening Concern

Now the worry is moving beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of two-wheelers outside a petrol pump. "Concern is genuine," the text reads.

According to analysis from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader energy security may be premature.

India imports almost all of its oil. Around a significant portion of its crude oil imports - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the deficit could be partly compensated for by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on maritime intelligence and industry information, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, narrowing India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The primary concern is LPG, commentators observe.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the Strait.

Refineries can tweak operations to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only lift domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be partially mitigated through varied suppliers. Fuel availability remains largely sufficient. Cooking gas supply is the critical issue to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the panic on the ground is not just limited availability but uneven distribution - and the common threat of hoarding.

An industry representative states price gouging.

"Distributors are misusing the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold at a premium."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be buffered by worldwide shipping. But in kitchens across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next cylinder.